2024 Oscars Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 6, 2023): “Barbie” crossed the billion-dollar mark, and with each dollar earned, it only helps any future awards campaign (even if Hollywood strikes continue). But how deep does the love go, and can it pull in additional, unexpected nominations?

As the “sublime” Ken, Ryan Gosling makes a case for delivering the single best performance of his career so far. A two-time nominee for “Half Nelson” (2006) and “La La Land” (2016), the Canadian actor could be a significant threat on the circuit. And with all the love for Greta Gerwig’s summer smash, Will Ferrell’s minor role in the film as the hilarious Mattel CEO is a charming delight. Still, similar to Jamie Lee Curtis’ nom (and win) for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” you never know what the Academy and precursors could throw into the equation. Ferrell also gets an added boost with his producer credit on Netflix’s “May December” from Todd Haynes (also offering a worthy contender in Charles Melton), which could bring a nom for best picture.

It won’t be easy with veterans from prestigious dramas sure to be in the mix.

The other half of the “Barbenheimer” craze, “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan’s historical opus, could bring Robert Downey Jr to the ceremony and his co-star Matt Damon.

Downey Jr has been nominated twice – “Chaplin” (1992) and “Tropic Thunder” (2008) – and the industry’s love for him can go a long way. With Damon, “Oppenheimer” is another charismatic turn from the Oscar winning screenwriter of “Good Will Hunting” (1997). If his leading turn in Ben Affleck’s “Air” is too difficult to overcome in best actor, he could still garner recognition like other actors who’ve been recognized after delivering multiple worthy performances (i.e., Philip Seymour Hoffman for “Charlie Wilson’s War” who also had “The Savages” and “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”). But will the Academy double dip, especially since only one actor has been recognized from a Nolan movie: Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight” (2008)?

The Academy naming Downey and Gosling as nominees will be God’s gift for Oscar ratings.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

One of the most influential actors of his generation, Robert DeNiro, will be vying for his third statuette for his role as a crooked cattleman in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Even following his wins for “The Godfather Part II” (1974) and “Raging Bull” (1981), the 79-year-old legend has flirted with winning one more, demonstrated by his presumed near triumph for “Silver Linings Playbook” (2012). Whether or not his co-star Jesse Plemons, a former nominee for “The Power of the Dog” (2021), joins him depends on how much love the voters pour on the vital epic.

Critics and audiences already love standouts like John Magaro from “Past Lives,” a deserving entrant, pending what his co-star Tee Yoo ultimately decides to campaign. However, an indie like this will need all the other pieces to fall into places like best director and original screenplay for Celine Song and actress for Greta Lee.

As always, there are many more questions than answers this early in the game. Keep watching the skies.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Robert DeNiro – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  2. Ryan Gosling – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  3. Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Charles Melton – “May December” (Netflix)
  5. John Magaro – “Past Lives” (A24)

Next in Line

  1. Glenn Howerton – “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
  2. Chris Messina – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  3. Matthew Goode – “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  4. Willem Dafoe – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  5. Matt Damon – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Jesse Plemons – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  2. Jacob Elordi – “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  3. Jacob Elordi – “Priscilla” (A24)
  4. Teo Yoo – “Past Lives” (A24) **
  5. Jeremy Allen White – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  6. Matt Bomer – “Maestro” (Netflix)
  7. Ben Affleck – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  8. Dominic Sessa – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  9. Mark Ruffalo – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) **
  10. Will Ferrell – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

Also In Contention

  1. Tommy Lee Jones – “The Burial” (Amazon Studios)
  2. Joel Edgerton – “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
  3. Glynn Turman – “Rustin” (Netflix)
  4. Anthony Ramos – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  5. Alexander Skarsgård – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
  6. Michael Shannon – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
  7. Tahar Rahim – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  8. Aaron Pierre – “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
  9. Kevin Bacon – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
  10. Nathan Lane – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • Austin Butler – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
  • Mike Faist – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
  • Tom Hardy – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
  • Michael Shannon – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
  • Nathan Lane – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  • Jeremy Allen White – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
  • John Magaro – “Past Lives” (A24)
  • Teo Yoo – “Past Lives” (A24) **
  • Jacob Elordi – “Priscilla” (A24)
  • Ben Affleck – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  • Chris Messina – “Air” (Amazon Studios)
  • Tommy Lee Jones – “The Burial” (Amazon Studios)
  • Raúl Castillo — “Cassandro” (Amazon Studios)
  • Aaron Pierre – “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
  • Jacob Elordi – “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  • Richard E. Grant – “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  • Riz Ahmed – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt – “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) **
  • Jack Reynor – “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
  • Robert DeNiro – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Jesse Plemons – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Tahar Rahim – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  • Jason Schwartzman – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) **
  • Tom Hanks – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
  • Dominic Sessa – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  • Glenn Howerton – “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
  • Dennis Haysbert – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
  • Benny Safdie – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
  • Bradley Cooper – “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) **
  • Joel Edgerton – “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
  • Jonathan Majors – “Creed III” (MGM)
  • Hamish Linklater – “The Nickel Boys” (MGM)
  • Sterling K. Brown – “American Fiction” (MGM)
  • Eddie Marsan – “Fair Play” (Netflix)
  • Arliss Howard – “The Killer” (Netflix)
  • Kevin Bacon – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
  • Charles Melton – “May December” (Netflix)
  • Matt Bomer – “Maestro” (Netflix)
  • Chris Evans – “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
  • Andy Garcia – “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
  • Bill Irwin – “Rustin” (Netflix)
  • Glynn Turman – “Rustin” (Netflix)
  • Robert DeNiro – “Ezra” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Josh O’Connor – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Andy Samberg – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Alexander Skarsgård – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Jesse Cilio – “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
  • James Norton – “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
  • Ray Romano – “Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)
  • Jerrod Carmichael – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Willem Dafoe – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Mark Ruffalo – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) **
  • Ramy Youssef – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Omar Sy – “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) **
  • Vincent D’Onofrio – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • Nick Offerman – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • Anthony Ramos – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • Sebastian Stan – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • Oscar Isaac – “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
  • Jake Johnson – “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
  • Matthew Goode – “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Patrick Dempsey – “Ferrari” (Neon)
  • Matt Damon – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Robert Downey Jr. – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Josh Hartnett – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Will Ferrell – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Ryan Gosling – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Colman Domingo – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Corey Hawkins – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Louis Gossett Jr. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Austin Butler – “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) **
  • Daveed Diggs – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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