Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
“FARGO” — “Bisquik” — Year 5, Episode 10 (Airs Jan 16) Pictured: Jennifer Jason Leigh as Lorraine Lyon. CR: Michelle Faye/FX
Courtesy of Michelle Faye/FX
Weekly Commentary (Updated: April 25, 2024): The British thriller “Baby Reindeer” on Netflix has unexpectedly surged into the spotlight, capturing significant attention and cultural impact. This previously under-the-radar series has seen its star, Jessica Gunning, rise as a potential frontrunner in the award race for her compelling portrayal of the enigmatic and scene-stealing stalker, Martha Scott.
According to Luminate, from April 12 to April 18, “Baby Reindeer” experienced a dramatic viewership increase of 8,000% from its debut, amassing 354.6 million minutes watched, or approximately 1.4 million views. This surge highlights the series’ growing popularity and the Television Academy’s appreciation for emerging talent. Traditionally, the supporting actress category in limited series has been receptive to newcomers, a trend that could favor Gunning against established competitors like Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”), Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Fargo”), and several actresses from “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”).
Gunning’s breakout role could also boost the chances of her co-star Nava Mau, who plays the love interest Teri, garnering attention for her performance.
Although it’s been some time since Ryan Murphy’s “American Horror Story” anthology series significantly influenced award seasons, Kim Kardashian’s casting as a publicist leading an awards campaign is perfectly aligned with the role she portrays. A perfect match between actor and character. Could she be taken serious enough by the acting peer group to make a dent in this competitive field?
As the award season progresses, the field remains dynamic, with potential new entrants such as Lily Gladstone and Riley Keough for “Under the Bridge,” and either Fumi Nikaidō or Moeka Hoshi for their roles in the epic “Shōgun.” The upcoming For Your Consideration (FYC) events are set to further shape the competitive landscape.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.